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Consumers predict that Americans will spend fewer dollars on Black Friday as rising prices and online shopping further erode the influence of the one-day retail holiday.

Fifty-one percent of the 1,000 shoppers responding to a survey will “reduce spending” this Friday compared to a year ago due to inflation, consumer researcher Attest reported. These shoppers said they were saving money for day-to-day expenses, an economic crisis, energy bills and gasoline.

“The impact of inflation is hard to ignore in our research,” said Jeremy King, CEO of Attest.

Attest found consumers would spend an average of $101-200 the day after Thanksgiving, up from $300-500 last year – and apparel replaced electronics for the first time as the most searched item.

Recommerce platform B-Stock, which resells returned, overstocked and liquidated merchandise for nine major retailers including Target, Amazon and Walmart, predicts electronics will see few discounts this weekend due to global supply shortages.

The company says overstock clothing, small appliances and home and garden products will get the best discounts as shoppers focus more on everyday essentials.

Online sellers and inflation have driven “the final nail in Black Friday’s coffin,” said Sam Kain, professor of finance at Walsh College in Michigan.

“It’s not Black Friday that’s dying, it’s brick-and-mortar retail that’s dying,” Kain said. “It’s much more convenient to shop from the comfort of your own home, away from the crowds of crowds ready to swarm you in search of deals.”

Once the most popular shopping day of the year, Black Friday has waned in importance as retailers offer seasonal discounts earlier to compete with online sellers.

“Black Friday, once known as a one-day event, has morphed into a shopping season that begins in September and runs through January,” said Angelica Gianchandani, consumer behavior scientist and professor of commerce at the University of New Haven.

Target kicked off its pre-Black Friday sale on Oct. 6, four days earlier than last year. Last month, Amazon held a Prime Early Access sale with Black Friday-like deals, the first time the retail giant has offered two Prime Day sales in a year.

“In recent years, consumer behavior has changed, with many preferring to spread their purchases out over the season,” said Lottie Watts, spokeswoman for the National Retail Federation (NRF). “Retailers have adapted to ensure they meet consumers when and how they want to shop.”

In a recent NRF survey, 60% of consumers said they had already started holiday shopping in early November this year. That’s up from 56% who said the same in 2019.

“This consumer trend of shopping earlier has been accelerated by the pandemic,” the retail group said in a press release.

The NRF survey found that Black Friday remains the most popular shopping day of Thanksgiving weekend, with 69% (about 114.9 million people) planning to shop then and 38% (63.9 million people) on Cyber ​​Monday. Among Black Friday shoppers, 67% plan to shop in person at stores this year, up from 64% last year.

“Black Friday isn’t dying, it’s getting more flexible,” said Ryan Young, senior fellow at the libertarian Competitive Enterprise Institute. “That’s why we’re seeing more and more retailers run Black November sales that last the whole month. People are busy and smart retailers are taking care of it.

But small business owner Michael Austin, a former chief economic adviser to two Kansas governors, said Amazon killed Black Friday as e-commerce tripled its market share over the past 10 years. .

“With trends like these, Black Friday is now a relic of a bygone commercial era,” said Austin, an economist at the National Center for Public Policy Research’s Project 21.

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Retail forecast predicts cut in Black Friday spending

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