In this article, you will get all information regarding Weather and trail update 25th December 2022
The holiday weekend has had temperatures far above seasonal and these will continue until Tuesday 27th. Such unseasonably warm temperatures have led to rapid snow melt everywhere, despite the low sun angle at this time of year, while in many areas freeze/thaw cycles have resulted in icy trails and roads especially in the early mornings.
Such warm conditions will soon be a distant memory. Multiple “atmospheric river” storm systems are forecast to bring extremely unsettled weather to the San Jacinto mountains starting Tuesday 27th December, lasting well into the first week of the new year. While these are expected to bring significant precipitation throughout the state, there remains considerable uncertainty regarding timing and precipitation amounts for Southern California.
Two key features of this sequence of storms will be the persistence of rainfall at mid elevations potentially for several consecutive days, and the relative warmth of the air masses which will lead to high freeze levels. High freeze levels may mean rain and/or freezing rain as high as 10,000 ft, and challenging layers of icy or mixed snow/ice conditions at all elevations, including the possible melting of much preexisting snow below about 8000 ft.
Current forecasts for precipitation suggest as much as three inches of rain around the elevation of Idyllwild (5000-6000 ft) between the afternoon of Tuesday 27th December 2022 and Wednesday 4th January 2023. The most likely break in the persistent rainfall may be 1st-2nd January. Forecasts for snowfall have varied wildly in both volume and timing, and range from a few inches to a few feet. The high country may be above the cloud for some of the time, with periodic light dustings of snow above about 7000 ft across much of the nine day period, but with the highest probability for a heavy snowfall on Saturday 31st December, totaling 12-15 inches. Clearly much remains uncertain, and I expect to post at least brief updates to the Trail Report daily from 27th onwards.
Recent hikes have included the high peaks (>10,000 ft) 2-4 times per week by various routes, Tahquitz Peak and area 1-2 times per week, South Ridge, Spitler Peak, and Marion Mountain trails, and May Valley Road and Indian Mountain Truck Trail.
Early morning hikes to San Jacinto Peak have generally had cold icy snow underfoot with sufficient bite for grippy boots, allowing me to bareboot all the way to San Jacinto Peak. There I generally put on Kahtoola microspikes for the descent. On 22nd for example I wore spikes down to about 7500 ft on Marion Mountain Trail.
Although good tracks are now in place for most major trails (details below), cautious navigation is recommended everywhere. Snow expected in the high country in the early hours of Wednesday 28th may be sufficient to obscure some of the higher elevation trails and complicate navigation.
Snow depths measured at various locations on the trail system are given at the foot of this posting. Note however that snow depth itself is rarely indicative of the difficulty (or otherwise) of hiking a particular trail. Very shallow snow is often icy and potentially perilous, while deeper powder can actually be much safer, albeit slow-going for hiking. Snow depths are expected to change multiple times over the next ten days due to higher mixed precipitation, including the possibility of loss of snow at mid elevations due to rainfall.
Spikes are currently recommended throughout the trail system above about 7000 ft. They are not however required, depending upon your comfort level hiking on shallow variable snow, potentially mixed with slushy and/or icy patches (depending upon time of day). Spikes are expected to remain extremely useful over the next few weeks given the unpredictable weather. They tend to be especially useful for descending trails.
Snowshoes are currently not required on the established trail system, which is now too heavily traveled and compacted for snowshoes. However they remain valuable for off-trail travel at elevations above about 9000 ft (potentially lower in places). Snowshoes are likely to become useful (even essential), at least above about 9000 ft, if there is significant snowfall during the coming week as forecast.
Hikers should be prepared for temperatures below freezing in the high country, and generally far freezing when considering wind chill effects.
The USFS gate at Humber Park remains closed. Even when the gate is closed there are nine legal parking spaces this side of the locked gate (near the upper Ernie Maxwell trailhead; these nine space still require an Adventure Pass or equivalent). Vehicles not parked in these spaces may be ticketed and/or towed. If there are “Road Closed” signs further down – as was often the case last winter especially at weekends and holiday periods – then those nine spaces are also unavailable for legal parking.
South Ridge Road (5S11) remains closed to vehicle traffic. On 24th the road had about 30% patchy ice cover.
Dark Canyon Road (4S02, the access to Seven Pines Trail) and Santa Rosa Truck Trail (7S02) closed to vehicle traffic for the season on 7th November 2022. Black Mountain Road also closed on 7th November to vehicle traffic at the gate 1.7 miles up from Highway 243. Forest Service campgrounds at Boulder Basin, Marion Mountain, and Fern Basin, and the State Park campground at Stone Creek, are closed for the season.
The strange rollercoaster ride that has been winter 2022/23 so far will continue for the foreseeable future. Multiple mild storm systems are forecast to bring extremely unsettled weather to the San Jacinto mountains starting Tuesday 27th December, lasting well into the first week of January. Rainfall will continue at mid elevations potentially for several consecutive days, and the relative warmth of the air masses may produce rain and/or freezing rain as high as San Jacinto Peak, challenging layers of icy or mixed snow/ice conditions at all elevations, and perhaps melting of much preexisting snow below about 8000 ft.
Current forecasts for precipitation suggest as much as three inches of rain around the elevation of Idyllwild (5000-6000 ft) between the afternoon of Tuesday 27th December 2022 and Wednesday 4th January 2023. Regarding snowfall, the high country may be above the cloud at times, with dustings of snow above about 7000 ft across much of the nine day period, but with the highest probability for a heavy snowfall on Saturday 31st December, totaling 12-15 inches.
At San Jacinto Peak (10,810ft/3295m) on Thursday 22nd December 2022 at 0910 the air temperature was 39.9°F (4°C), with a windchill temperature of 30.4°F (-1°C), 13% relative humidity, and a light WNW wind sustained at 9 mph gusting to 13.8 mph.
At the Peak on Monday 19th December 2022 at 0920 the air temperature was 31.3°F (0°C), with a windchill temperature of 20.7°F (-6°C), 9% relative humidity, and a light WNW wind sustained at 5 mph gusting to 9.9 mph.
All trails above about 6500 ft remain lightly (or above 9000 ft, moderately) snow-covered. However, relatively well-traveled tracks are now in place for most major trails (details below). These conditions are expected to change significantly over the next 7-10 days due to the highly unsettled weather forecast into early January.
The Ernie Maxwell Scenic Trail is largely clear of icy snow, with a few patches remaining, mostly close to Humber Park.
Devil’s Slide Trail has an excellent compacted track to follow to Saddle Junction. Snow cover is only 20% below 6700 ft, about 60% up to 7500 ft, and is largely continuous thereafter. Spikes are recommended.
The 0.4 mile section of South Ridge Trail between Chinquapin Flat/PCT and Tahquitz Peak has a lightly traveled posthole track to follow through the drifted powder. Although not essential in the moderate depth powder, spikes are strongly recommended and many hikers will find them useful especially for descending. Hikers who have an ice axe (and know how to use it) may find it useful in places on this short section of trail. This trail will become significantly more treacherous as it is expected to add freezing rain and/or layers of snow and ice over the next ten days.
Immediately north of Saddle Junction, snow cover is patchy on the sun exposed slope (“Angel’s Glide”) but icy snow cover is largely continuous through the Wellman and Peak trails to San Jacinto Peak. However the route is now largely well-traveled and compacted.
There is a compacted, well-traveled track on continuous light icy snow from Long Valley/Tram to Wellman Divide.
Skyline Trail has a good track to follow through very light and patchy icy snow above about 7200 ft (the Traverse to Grubb’s Notch). Spikes are recommended.
South Ridge Trail [updated 24th December] has about 30% icy snow cover from the top of South Ridge Road to Old Lookout Flat (7600 ft). To Tahquitz Peak snow cover averages about 40%, alternating on the 18 switchbacks between those that are largely clear (south-facing) and those that are largely snow-covered (north-facing). There is a well-traveled track to follow through the very light and patchy 1-3 inches of icy snow. Spikes are not generally required for ascending, but most hikers will find them useful for descending.
Deer Springs Trail [updated 22nd December] has an accurate track to follow all the way to San Jacinto Peak as I broke trail the entire way down to the Suicide Rock Trail junction on 15th December. I was pleased to see that over the weekend some posthole tracks were added on top of my snowshoe track from last week all the way up Deer Springs Trail to San Jacinto Peak. Although my original track accurately followed the trail above Little Round Valley, there are now a fair number of alternate shortcut tracks across this slope, so cautious navigation is advised. There is a very well-traveled track on the lowest section of Deer Springs Trail continuing out to Suicide Rock.
Marion Mountain Trail [updated 22nd December] has a well-defined but lumpy posthole track throughout. Spikes are recommended, at least for descending. A few cleared patches are developing below 7000 ft.
Seven Pines Trail has not been traveled since the storm in mid December, at least not in its uppermost section, and there is no track to follow through the snow.
Spitler Peak Trail is now largely clear of snow. There is a very visible boot track – through light snow in places in its upper switchbacks – to the PCT.
SNOW DEPTHS measured on 22nd-25th December 2022 are as follows. The first number is the current total snow depth, followed in parentheses by the greatest depth of the winter to date following the latest storm on 11th-12th December. Note that average depth is given; due to strong winds accompanying the storm there is extensive drifting, often particularly accumulating in the trails. Conversely in some places scouring by the wind means the depths are well below the average. Altitudes are approximate.
San Jacinto Peak (10810 ft): 8 inches (12-14 inches on 12th December)
Little Round Valley (9800 ft): 8 inches (10-12 inches on 12th December)
Wellman Divide (9700 ft): 1-3 inches (7 inches on 12th December)
Annie’s Junction/approx. PCT Mile 181.8 (9070 ft): 3 inches (5.5 inches on 12th December)
Marion Mountain Trail at junction with PCT (8700 ft): 4 inches (6 inches on 12th December)
Long Valley (8600 ft): 1-2 inches (5-6 inches on 12th December)
Strawberry Junction (8100 ft): 1-2 inches (4 inches on 12th December)
Saddle Junction/approx. PCT Mile 179.9 (8070 ft): 1-2 inches (4 inches on 12th December)
Devil’s Slide trailhead at Humber Park (6550 ft): 0 inches (3.5 inches on 12th December)
Idyllwild (at 5550 ft): 0 inch (3.0 inches on 12th December).
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Weather and trail update 25th December 2022
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